Bills at Patriots TNF Preview, Picks, and Odds

by | Dec 1, 2022 | Football, Patriot Press

The Buffalo Bills (8-3) and New England Patriots (6-5) will play their second straight Thursday game after suiting up on Thanksgiving. For the Bills, a victory would move them atop the AFC East, while a loss would send them down to third. For the Patriots, a win would put them right back in the thick of things in the division, while a loss would significantly hurt their chances of making the playoffs. This is a crucial game for both teams in a crowded and competitive division. Let’s dive into this Bills at Patriots TNF preview.

Bills In Week 11

The Buffalo Bills beat the Detroit Lions 28-25 in an offensive shootout on Thanksgiving. A hard-fought game by both teams, but Buffalo prevailed with the help of some poor Dan Campbell clock management. Josh Allen has shown a lot of heart and determination as he plays through an elbow injury.

This was a big win for the Bills and helped them in their playoff push. They are currently 8-3 and in second place in the AFC East. The Bills haven’t faired well in the division this year, currently sitting at 0-2 with losses to Miami and New York.

Patriots In Week 11

The Patriots lost a 33-26 uncharacteristically sloppy game against the Vikings on Thanksgiving. Poor play on special teams and several dumb penalties prevented the Patriots from pulling off an upset. The major turning point in the game was the completely unnecessary roughing the kicker penalty that gave the Vikings new life. The defense also struggled at times, allowing Kirk Cousins to throw for 299 yards and three touchdowns.

It was a disappointing performance all around, and it’ll be interesting to see how the team bounces back against Buffalo.

On The Call

The game on Thursday will be broadcast on Amazon Prime Video, with game time set for 8:15 pm ET. Al Michaels, Kirk Herbstreit, and sideline reporter Kaylee Hartung will be on the call. You can listen to the game locally on 98.5, The Sports Hub in Boston.

Bills at Patriots TNF Preview – Game Notes

  • The Patriots are 16-4 against the Bills when they face each other in Foxboro. Obviously, most of those wins came with Tom Brady under center.
  • This is a unique Thursday night game where neither team will play on short rest.
  • New England has 77 all-time wins against the Buffalo Bills. The most against any opponent in their franchise’s history.
  • The Patriots will enter Thursday’s game second in the league in sacks with 37.
  • Nick Folk has made 56 straight field goals inside of 40 yards. He’s been one of their most consistent performers on offense.
  • Tyler Bass has been equally as good, making 23/26 of his kicks for Buffalo this season.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has been great in the passing game this season, with 50 catches going into week 13.
  • The Patriots will need to clean up their act to have a shot at winning on Thursday. We know Buffalo is the better team on paper, so they can’t beat themselves.
  • Matthew Judon did not record a sack on Thanksgiving but still leads the NFL with 13 on the season.
  • The loss of Von Miller for the foreseeable future is a massive blow for Buffalo. It’s like a baseball team losing their shutdown closer.
  • Josh Allen leads the league with 11 interceptions and is playing with a bad elbow. A turnover or two would go a long way for the Patriots in this game.
  • Myles Bryant got torched by Isaiah McKenzie during their head-to-head battles last season. Expect Belichick to switch up the matchups.
  • Easier said than done, but the Patriots need to keep Allen in the pocket as much as possible. He has torched them with his legs since he became the Bills starting quarterback in 2018.
  • The Bills have the flu going through their locker room, which is something to keep an eye on going into Thursday.

Billsat Patriots TNF preview odds
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Fantasy Football Start’ Em

Stefon Diggs: We saw star receiver Justin Jefferson carve up the Patriots secondary on Thanksgiving. Stefon Diggs will be in an excellent position to do something similar Thursday night in Foxboro. Expect the superstar wideout to be heavily targeted against the Patriots.

Jacobi Meyers: Meyers has been the most consistent wide receiver on this roster for a few years now. Expect him to get a good volume of targets on Thursday, making him a great option in PPR leagues. He got banged up last Thursday but ultimately returned to the game. If he starts, he’ll produce.

Fantasy Football Sit ‘Em

Patriots’ Defense: As we know, the last time the Patriots defense faced the Buffalo offense, it didn’t go too well. While we expect a better performance than they had in the Wild Card game, lean to the safer bet for a defense in week 13. The floor is too low when facing a top offense like Buffalo.

Devin Singletary: The Patriots have been stout up front all season, and that was on full display when they held Dalvin Cook to 1.9 yards per rush on Thanksgiving. The Bills will run the ball to set up the pass, don’t expect much from any of the Buffalo backs on Thursday night.

Bills at Patriots TNF Preview – Sports Betting

Bills Vs. Patriots Odds

Odds Powered by DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • ATS: Bills -3.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Bills (-190) / Patriots (+163)
  • Over/Under: 43.5 Total Points (-110)

Thomas’ Final Thoughts and Betting Picks

After a sloppy game in Minnesota, we’ll see the Patriots bounce back with a huge win. The Bills aren’t invincible like we thought they’d be after the first three games. Taking a leap of faith here, but give me New England.

From a betting perspective, the three best bets here are the Pats moneyline, ATS, and the under. It depends which way you want to bet but personally, I’d ride with the Patriots outright to win because you can get it at plus money.

Score Prediction: Patriots Win 23-20