Full Game Preview and Picks: Patriots at Packers

by | Oct 2, 2022 | Football, Patriot Press

Game Preview

The New England Patriots will travel to Green Bay for the first time since their 26-21 loss in 2014. Mac Jones will be on the sideline with an ankle injury. It will be an uphill battle to try and secure a victory against reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers. For New England to have any chance, they need to control the clock with the running game and force Green Bay turnovers.

Packers In Week 3

In the battle between GOAT vs GOAT Aaron Rodgers snuck away with the win in week 3, but barely. Rodgers was efficient on Sunday, going 27/35 with two touchdowns against a formidable Buccaneers defense. Not only that, but the Packer’s defense played well and held Tom Brady to only 12 points on offense. The Packers seem to be finding a groove like last season after a slow start.

Patriots In Week 3

Week 3 came at a high cost for the Patriots, with Mac Jones sustaining a high ankle sprain late in the fourth quarter. Jones could miss a significant amount of time, and New England must turn to veteran Brian Hoyer while he recovers. As for the game, the Patriots had an opportunity to pull out the victory against Baltimore, but too many mistakes ended any hopes of victory.

On The Call

The game on Sunday will be televised nationally on CBS, with kickoff set for 4:25 pm ET. Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, and sideline reporter Tracy Wolfson will be on the call. You can listen to the game locally on 98.5, The Sports Hub in Boston.

Game Thoughts:

  • The Patriots will start backup Brian Hoyer on Sunday after Jones sustained a high ankle sprain against the Ravens.
  • Aaron Rodgers seems to be finding a groove as he navigates an offense without star wideout DeVante Adams.
  • This is the Patriot’s first trip to Green Bay since 2014 (Packers won 26-21)
  • New England is 6-5 all-time against the Packers.
  • This week, the Patriots line will get a big test facing the formidable Packers front.
  • Brian Hoyer is 0-11 in his last 11 starts (Yikes)
  • I want to see the tight ends more involved in the offense for the Pats.
  • Nick Folk is as automatic as they come. He’s made 57 straight kicks inside 50 yards, which is an NFL record.
  • DeVante Parker had a big week three performance against Baltimore; let’s see if he can keep the momentum going even with Hoyer under center.
  • Deatrich Wise had the performance of his career when he recorded three sacks on Sunday. They will need to pressure Rodgers up front to have any shot at a win.
  • I’d expect to see a lot of Dillon and Jones on the rushing attack.
  • Cole Strange seems to be hushing the doubters saying he wasn’t worthy of a top pick.
  • A win on Sunday would tie Bill Belichick with George Halas for the second most wins by a head coach in NFL history (323).
  • Matthew Judon continues to be everything the Patriots could have asked for. He’s recorded at least one sack in his first three games.

Fantasy Football Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em

Start ‘Em:

Packers Defense: It’s hard to imagine the Patriot’s offense being able to put up many points in this contest. Even if the Packers don’t force any turnovers, their floor will be relatively high. So, starting their defense is a safe bet come Sunday.

Aaron Rodgers: Through three weeks, the Patriot’s defense has surrendered the 6th most points to opposing QBs. Rodgers has gotten progressively better and seems to be finding some sort of groove. He’s someone I’d start this week and not have to worry too much about.

Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson seems to be getting better week after week. And with Mac Jones on the sideline, I’d expect more opportunities for Stevenson in the short passing game. I see him and Damian Harris being solid starts on Sunday, especially in PPR.

Sit ‘Em:

Patriots’ Defense: Like last week, the floor is much lower than the ceiling is high. I’d expect the Patriot’s defense to be worn down by the fourth quarter with backup Brian Hoyer on the field. Throw in the reigning MVP on the other side of the field, at home, that’s a recipe for disaster.

DeVante Parker: Parker was a big bright spot for the Patriots on offense last week, racking up 156 yards on five catches. But I expect a dip in overall production with the injury to Mac Jones and his matchup against a formidable Packers secondary.

Nick Folk: The Pats will need to score touchdowns if/when they get the ball in the RedZone. So, Folk’s potential point floor and ceiling are too low to give him a start in your league. You can find better options through free agency.

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Patriots at Packers Betting Tips

Patriots at Packers Odds

  • Spread Favorite: Green Bay (-9.5)
  • Moneyline: Green Bay (-460), New England (+360)
  • Point Total: 39.5 Points

Over/Under: Take the under. I expect the New England defense to play well, but not well enough to win. The Patriots need to control the clock in this game to have any shot with Hoyer under center.

Moneyline: Packers

Spread: The Packers (-9.5)

Patriots at Packers Prediction: Packers win 24-13

Thomas’ Final Thoughts

Considering Brian Hoyer starting at quarterback, it’s difficult to imagine the Patriots having a real shot in this one. I think the New England defense keeps it somewhat close into the second half. However, Aaron Rodgers does what he does and pulls away in the fourth for the Packers W.