Championship weekend is here, with two unreal matchups on Sunday and the winners heading to the Super Bowl. While the game lines are great and there’s a lot to dissect there, let’s dive into the best NFL championship weekend props from each team to spread the action around on Sunday.
Best NFL Championship Weekend Props – San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards Over 66.5 (-114)
If you’ve been watching the Eagles over the last four games, you’ll know that Smith is getting a ton of targets. Teams are focusing on AJ Brown, and Smith is getting a ton of 1 vs 1 opportunities. The former Heisman Trophy winner is a tremendous route runner and has great hands. This total is too low for him, especially considering the 49ers rank in the bottom of the league in big play defense.
While that defense is first in yards per game allowed and turnover differential, their secondary has been getting beat all season. They know that, and Philly knows that. You can expect more bracket coverage on AJ Brown, and all it’s going to take is one deep shot to Smith to get over this number. Against the Giants, in a game in which the Eagles ran the ball all over the field, Smith was still able to reel in six catches for 61 yards. In fact, in his last eight games Smith has gone over this total six times.
The Eagles offensive line is going to be able to give Hurts time to throw the ball, and Smith will benefit from that. Its clear that regardless of the QB under center, he’s the target monster. On the entire season, he’s only had less than seven targets in a game four times. All of that adds up to a big day for Smith, and a cashed ticket for us.
Brock Purdy Passing Yards Under 218.5 (-114)
Mr. Irrelevant is in for a really tough game on Sunday. Philadelphia’s defensive unit is stout, and while everyone is going to be focused on the 49ers defensive unit, you cannot overlook how ferocious the Eagles have been. They are good at every level, and are approaching rarified air with the number of sacks they have gotten this season. They are extremely close to breaking the sack record of the historic ’85 Bears.
Not only does Philly have a relentless pass rush, but Lincoln Financial field is going to be the most hostile environment Purdy has ever played in. San Fran isn’t going to put Purdy in a position where he himself has to win the game. Shanahan is going to rely on his run game and screen game to move the ball, and you can expect James Bradbury, Darius Slay and company to lock up their receivers.
Purdy has only gone over this total twice this season, and Sunday isn’t going to be his 3rd. While this run has been fun to watch, and it’s an incredible story, he faces the #1 team against the pass on Sunday. This is a team that only gives up 167 YPG through the air at home. Unfortunately for Brock Purdy, we are going to see exactly why he was the last pick in the draft, and a name no one knew until a few weeks ago. This is my favorite play on this game, and a ticket I’m looking forward to cashing.
NFC Championship Anytime TD Props
AJ Brown (+155) could easily blow the top off of the defense for 6, and he will. While Smith gets the targets and yards, Brown will get the score.
George Kittle (+185) will be the one to get them in the end zone for the Niners, even though Purdy won’t put up massive yardage stats.
Best NFL Championship Weekend Props – Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
Joe Burrow Total Passing Yards Over 276.5 (-122)
The Bengals are rolling right now, and they head to Kansas City in search of their second straight AFC Championship. This is a matchup of two of the best quarterbacks in the league, and you can expect a high scoring duel. Burrow has gone over this total in seven games this year, and with a point total set at 48 you know there will be points put up.
The Cincinnati offense ranks 7th in total passing yards per game, while the Chiefs rank 18th in the league against the pass. The Chiefs don’t have the secondary talent to matchup with all of the weapons that Burrow has at his disposal. Burrow was able to throw for 242 yards against the Bills last week, in a snowy cold environment. The weather should be more conducive to the pass this week, and it’s unlikely that the Bengals will have the luxury of slowing down at the end of the game. Look for Burrow to complete some deep throws to Higgins and Chase, and watch him cruise over this number and cash your ticket.
Travis Kelce Total Receiving Yards Over 77.5 (-114)
Travis Kelce is clearly his quarterbacks favorite target, and the best tight end in the league to boot. Last week against the Jags, the Pro Bowler reeled in 14 catches for 98 yards and scored twice. You can bet that momentum continues against this Bengals team that doesn’t have a great option on defense to lock him down. Kelce has eclipsed this yardage total ten times this season, although the Bengals were able to hold him under in their earlier matchup.
It’s a guarantee that the coaching staff of KC is going to look to get him involved early and often. They will scheme to keep the middle of the field open, an area where Kelce thrives. When you have a quarterback as talented as they do, it’s hard not to think that the number one passing option for the team won’t have a big day. The Bengals have been giving up chunk yardage all season, ranking a lowly 24th in the league against the pass. Additionally, they are allowing over 241 yards per game to the opposition on the road. Take the over with Kelce on Sunday and cash that late window ticket.
AFC Championship Game Anytime TD Scorer Props
Tee Higgins (+170) is due for a big game. In what projects to be a high scoring affair, and so much attention on Chase, Higgins gets free for 6.
Jerrick McKinnon (+160) is going to get plenty of chances out of the backfield in this high scoring game, and one of those he’ll break off for a touchdown.