NFL Week 16 Picks, Best Odds, and Game Previews

by | Dec 23, 2022 | Football

The NFL officially takes over Saturday with the majority of games falling on Christmas Eve, and only three on Christmas Day. It’s really big of them to let the NBA have their day when it falls on a Sunday this year – better for us as we get five straight days of football if you include bowl games. Let’s dive into these NFL Week 16 Picks, best odds, and game previews.

Check back throughout the weekend as we add the Christmas Day NFL games.

Seattle Seahawks (+385) at Kansas City Chiefs (-500) – Saturday, 1:00PM EST

Seattle is the biggest underdog of week 16, they opened as 10-point ‘dogs against the Chiefs. On offense, they don’t have any issues passing the ball as they rank in the top 10 this season in pass yard per game. However, if they hope to win this game, they’ll need to lean on a ground game that has been below average. They must keep the ball out of Mahomes hands.

On the defensive side, they’ve been one of the worst units in the league ranking towards the bottom in almost all areas. Against a high-powered Chiefs offense, don’t be surprised if Kansas City hangs 40 on them. There’s almost no chance the Seahawks come away victorious in Saturday’s game, but if they want a shot then they will have to play tough, physical football.

Seattle Seahawks Notable Injuries: S Ryan Neal (O), DT Al Woods (O), RB Kenneth Walker III (Q)

We’re used to seeing the Chiefs trot out a defense who are at the bottom of the league. However, this year they’ve done well against the rush, and haven’t given up a ton of points. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, this Seahawks team has thrived through the air and that’s an area this defense has not been exceptional. They will need to tighten up against DK Metcalf and Marquise Goodwin.

We already know the type of play that Patrick Mahomes is capable of, and their offense hasn’t skipped a beat all season. Even in the games that they’ve lost, the Chiefs have put up points and been within 3-4 points. This week’s matchup against a decimated Seahawks defense is a juicy one, and Mahomes and company will move the ball at will.

Chiefs Notable Injuries: TE Jody Fortson (O), DT Khalen Saunders (D), S Deon Bush (O)

Fantasy Football Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em

Seahawks Start ‘Em

1. Geno Smith   2. DK Metcalf   3. Kenneth Walker III*

Seahawks Sit ‘Em

1. Seahawks Defense   2. Noah Fant

Chiefs Start ‘Em

1. Patrick Mahomes   2. Travis Kelce   3. JuJu Smith-Schuster

Chiefs Sit ‘Em

1. Chiefs Defense 2. Kadarius Toney

Seattle Seahawks vs Kansas City Chiefs NFL Week 16 Picks

The Chiefs won’t have any trouble against the Seahawks and will move on to 12-4, and one step closer to the #1 seed. From a betting perspective, the point total at 49.5 is on the high side. However, I’m not worried about it one bit and that’s the best bet in this one. The Chiefs against a bad, decimated defense is good for 4+ touchdowns, and the Seahawks will have to air it out while playing from behind.

Final Score: Kansas City 38 – Seattle 24

Wicked Wagers – Chiefs -10 (-108) / Over 49.5 (-110)

Wicked Player Prop – Travis Kelce First Touchdown Scorer (+510)

New York Giants (+172) at Minnesota Vikings (-205) – Saturday, 1:00PM EST

New York defeated the Commanders last week in controversial fashion to move to 8-5-1. Their offense is built around Saquon Barkley and the ground attack and has been like that all year. Through 15 weeks, they rank an impressive 6th in rush yards per game, but they’re a one-dimensional team. They have suffered from a slew of injuries to their wide receivers, and no one has been able to step it up. Quarterback Daniel Jones isn’t talented enough to just be able to throw to anyone, which is why they’ve resorted to leaning so heavily on the run game. The Vikings aren’t great against the run, so they’ll have to give the ball to Saquon early and often to open up the pass game.

On the defensive side, they rank in the top half of the league in most metrics. This will be an interesting matchup to watch as the Vikings haven’t done well against teams that can hold down Justin Jefferson and company.

New York Giants Notable Injuries: S Xavier McKinney (O), CB Adoree’ Jackson (O), G Shane Lemieux (O)

In recent years, we’ve been accustomed to seeing the Vikings and Dalvin Cook run the ball at will. However, it hasn’t been the same story this season. With a new head coach comes a new offensive scheme. Kevin O’Connell has “unlocked” Kirk Cousins, and the Vikings are much more pass heavy behind him and their star wideout. Wide receiver Justin Jefferson has established himself as one of the best in the game, and he’s slated to have a big game against the Giants.

The Vikings defense is not great against the run, ranking 18th in opponents rush yards per game. They will have their hands full with Barkley, but if they can shut him down then they should run away with this one.

Minnesota Vikings Notable Injuries: C Garrett Bradbury (O), CB Cameron Dantzler Sr. (Q), LB Eric Kendricks (Q)

Fantasy Football Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em

Giants Start ‘Em

1. Saquon Barkley  2. Darius Slayton

Giants Sit ‘Em

1. Daniel Jones   2. Richie James

Vikings Start ‘Em

1. Kirk Cousins   2. Dalvin Cook   3. Justin Jefferson

Vikings Sit ‘Em

1. Vikings Defense   2. Adam Thielen

New York Giants’ vs Minnesota Vikings NFL Week 16 Picks

This will be a very, very close game. While the Giants have a better defense, the Vikings have a better offense and a quarterback who is more proven. We have to factor in how good Minnesota has been during crunch time, but they’ll sneak by New York to move to 12 wins.

Final Score: Minnesota 24 – New York 23

Wicked Wager – Giants +3.5 (-104)

Wicked Player Prop – Dalvin Cook First Touchdown Scorer (+420)

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Buffalo Bills (-390) at Chicago Bears (+310) – Saturday, 1:00PM EST

Buffalo enters this week on a 5-game win streak, and they shouldn’t have too much trouble against the Bears. Their defense is ranked top 10 in points, rushing yards, and totaled yards allowed per game. If they can contain Justin Fields and not allow him to run free, they’ll be fine. On the offensive side, they’ve been one of the best and most balanced in all the NFL. They’ve established a running back committee with Devin Singletary and James Cook, and when plays break down, Allen has done a great job scrambling. The Bears have a bottom 5 defense, so the Bills will dominate time of possession.

Buffalo Bills Notable Injuries: C Mitch Morse (O), DE Boogie Bashman (O), DT Ed Oliver (O)

Besides Justin Fields, the Bears don’t really have much to write home about. Their running backs have been solid, but that’s about it. The front office hasn’t been able to surround Fields with wide receiver weapons and against a Bills team that’s flooded with stars on both sides of the ball, he just doesn’t have enough to be able to compete. Chicago’s defense is among the worst in the league due to the front office trading away key pieces and injuries and they won’t be able to stop opposing quarterback Josh Allen.

Chicago Bears Notable Injuries: C Cody Whitehair (O), WR Chase Claypool (D), S Eddie Jackson (O) 

Fantasy Football Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em

Bills Start ‘Em

1. Josh Allen   2. Stefon Diggs   3. Devin Singletary

Bills Sit ‘Em

1. James Cook 2. Tyler Bass

Bears Start ‘Em

1. Justin Fields   2. David Montgomery   3. Cole Kmet

Bears Sit ‘Em

1. Bears Defense   2. N’Keal Harry

Buffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears NFL Week 16 Picks

Buffalo handles their business against Chicago and moves on with a win. The weather forecast for Saturday’s game is cold and windy. I’m talking single digit temperatures with wind gusts of up to 40 mph. Both teams will have run heavy game plans which means it’ll be a low scoring one.

Final Score: Buffalo 35 – Chicago 24

Wicked Wagers – Bills -8.5 (-110) / Over 40.5 (-105)

Wicked Player Prop – Justin Fields Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+200)

Detroit Lions (-148) at Carolina Panthers (+125) – Saturday 1:00 PM EST

Detroit comes into this week winners of six of their last seven games, with the one loss coming in a close game to Buffalo. The Lions have benefited from an improvement in their defense over the course of the season. However, on the offensive side, they’ve managed to stay productive.

Halfway through the season, Detroit was the team that could score points but would allow more points every week. In he past six wins, the defense has allowed the other team less than 20 points in four of those games. In Week 16 against Carolina, the resurging defense should be able to shine again facing an offense that has scored less than 20 points per game. They even held that low point total when they still had Christian McCaffrey in the backfield.

Detroit Lions Notable Injuries: C Frank Ragnow (Q), LB Derrick Barnes (Q), S DeShon Elliott (O)

Carolina comes into this game surprisingly still in the playoff picture, but that’s solely because they are in the worst division in football. However, the Panthers decided this season’s playoff was not worth pursuing when they traded away one of the league’s best running backs. Now in Week 16 they sit just one game out in the division.

The Panther offense has still struggled, just barely averaging 300 yards per game. However, they have been scoring more points in recent games compared to the beginning of the season. This week, Carolina will need a strong game from quarterback Sam Darnold in his fourth start of the season. Last week, he had 225 yards and a touchdown in his best start yet. He will face a Detroit defense that is still averaging 280 passing yards against this season.

Carolina Panthers Notable Injuries: Jaycee Horn (P)

Fantasy Football Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em

Detroit Lions Start ‘Em

  1. Jared Goff   2. Amon-Ra St. Brown   3. D’Andre Swift

Detroit Lions Sit ‘Em

  1. DJ Chark   2. Josh Reynolds   3. Jamaal Williams

Carolina Panthers Start ‘Em

  1. D’Onta Foreman   2. DJ Moore   3. Chuba Hubbard

Carolina Panthers Sit ‘Em

  1. Terrace Marshall Jr.   2. Ian Thomas   3. Sam Darnold

Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers NFL Week 16 Picks

With the momentum they have and the wild card still very much in play, watch for Detroit to come into this game ready to win all four quarters. Jared Goff has been playing well and has far more weapons on offense than the Panthers defense can handle. This game will never really close, and Detroit will run away with it even if the score doesn’t reflect that exactly.

Final Score: Detroit 33 – Carolina 20

Wicked Wager – Over 43 (-115) / Detroit -2.5 (-117)

Wicked Player Prop – Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120)

Philadelphia Eagles (+175) at Dallas Cowboys (-210) – Saturday 4:25 PM EST

The Eagles have the best record in football but come into this division rematch missing a major piece of that winning formula: quarterback Jalen Hurts. In the first matchup with the Cowboys, Hurts tossed two touchdowns and just over 150 yards while Miles Sanders also found the end zone once.

This time around, Philadelphia will have Gardener Minshew at quarterback in his first start since Week 18 of the 2021 season where he started against the Cowboys as well. The Cowboys ultimately won that game but Minshew had two touchdowns and an interception to go with 186 yards. To win this week, the entire Eagles offense will need a strong game against a Dallas defense that has shut down some of the NFC’s best offenses.

Philadelphia Eagles Notable Injuries: QB Jalen Hurts (O), WR Zach Pascal (Q), TE Tyree Jackson (O)

Dallas comes into this game with the opposite scenario to Philadelphia: this time they have their starting quarterback. In the prior matchup in Pennsylvania, Dak Prescott was out and the Cowboys had Cooper Rush under center.

This time, America’s Team enters the game healthy and is hunting after the division title still, but they clinched a playoff birth last week. The key for Dallas to win this week will be the defense completely shutting down Philadelphia’s offense, taking advantage of the absence of Hurts. The Cowboy offense will be facing an Eagles defense that is allowing under 20 points per game but should expect more possessions if Minshew is unable to create long scoring drives.

Dallas Cowboys Notable Injuries: LB Leighton Vander Esch (O), LB Micah Parsons (Q), TE Jake Ferguson (Q), CB Trevon Diggs (Q)

Fantasy Football Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em

Philadelphia Eagles Start ‘Em

  1. Miles Sanders   2. A.J. Brown   3. Jake Elliott

Philadelphia Eagles Sit ‘Em

  1. Gardner Minshew   2. Dallas Goedert   3. DeVonta Smith

Dallas Cowboys Start ‘Em

  1. Dak Prescott   2. CeeDee Lamb   3. Dallas Cowboys Defense

Dallas Cowboys Sit ‘Em

  1. Michael Gallup   2. T.Y. Hilton   3. Tony Pollard

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys NFL Week 16 Picks

It is lucky for Philadelphia that they have a multi-game lead in both the division and the rest of the NFC since this week will be a tough game. Dallas is playing well heading into the end of the regular season and the loss of Jalen Hurts, well, it hurts.

Watch for Dallas to take this game by a double-digit margin as the Cowboys make a final push to try to win the NFC East.

Final Score: Dallas 30 – Philadelphia 17

Wicked Wager – Dallas -4.5 (-112)

Wicked Player Prop – Dak Prescott Total Passing Yards Over 241.5 (+105)

DeVonta Smith Total Receiving Yards Under 52.5 (-115)

Las Vegas Raiders (+115) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-135) – Saturday 8:15 PM EST

Las Vegas comes into this week winning 4 of their last 5 games, including a pair in overtime and a minor miracle last week at the hands of Patriots. The Raiders still have a chance to make the playoffs and will need a win in Pittsburgh this week to keep those hopes alive. The key to victory will continue to be running back Josh Jacobs, he averages about 60 yards more in wins than he does in games the Raiders have lost this season. He will face a Steelers defense that just annihilated the Carolina running game last week, however. With this game featuring a pair of weaker offenses it may be Jacobs versus the defense that determines who wins.

Las Vegas Raiders Notable Injuries: Alex Bars (Q), Zamir White (Q), Darien Butler (Q), Andrew Billings (Q), Rock Ya-Sin (O)

Pittsburgh will get Kenny Pickett back under center. The rookie quarterback was starting to pick up his game before missing the last two games. He will face a Raider defense that has allowed the highest rating in the league to opposing quarterbacks, and only has 4 interceptions all season. Steelers running back Najee Harris has not had the greatest season this year, but he is coming off a solid game and will face a defense that just allowed over 200 yards on the ground a week ago. If the combination of Pickett and Harris can keep the Las Vegas defense guessing, the Steelers should be able to put enough points on the board to keep the ball in Carr’s hands instead of Jacobs.

Pittsburgh Steelers Notable Injuries: WR Diontae Johnson (Q), S Terrell Edmunds (Q), LB Myles Jack (Q)

Fantasy Football Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em

Las Vegas Raiders Start ‘Em

  1. Josh Jacobs   2. Darren Waller   3. Davante Adams

Las Vegas Raiders Sit ‘Em

  1. Derek Carr   2. Hunter Renfrow   3. Mack Hollins

Pittsburgh Steelers Start ‘Em

  1. Najee Harris   2. Pat Freiermuth   3. Chris Boswell

Pittsburgh Steelers Sit ‘Em

  1. Kenny Pickett   2. Diontae Johnson   3. George Pickens

Las Vegas Raiders vs Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Week 16 Picks

The Raiders offense is not where many fans likely thought it would be this season, most notably the struggles of Derek Carr and even the slow games wide receiver Davante Adams has had lately. Even with that, they have found way to grind out wins late in the game. This week, they are in a position to do that again facing a Steelers team that has not been difficult to beat. Expect this game to be close until the end when a long Raider drive shuts down the game.

Final Score: Las Vegas 23 – Pittsburgh 14

Wicked Wager – Raiders ML (+115)

Wicked Player Prop – Kenny Pickett Total Interceptions Over 0.5 (-105)