Last week did not go according to plan, thanks to some outlandish covers by Kent State. They played a close game with title-favorite Georgia until the 4th quarter. Also, Buffalo, who blew out Eastern Michigan on the road! The important thing to remember in betting is you can’t win them all. Let’s dive back into Mac Daddy’s week 5 MAC picks of the week.
Last Week: (0-4) ATS, 0 Totals
MAC Daddy Season Record: (3-5) ATS, 0-0 on Totals
Ohio (+11.5) @ Kent State
Total O/U: 69
Kent State has covered two of three weeks so far this season in games with a spread. Last week, they lost an almost-competitive bout to #1 ranked Georgia with a final score of 39-22. The high total is merited, as the Ohio Bobcats have averaged almost 600 yards allowed per game. That number is among the worst in the FBS in 2022.
The Kent State line opened closer to a one touchdown favorite and have moved to a double-digit favorite. Ohio has played to a 2-2 record through 4 games, and the total has gone over in each contest. The Bobcats came away with a thrilling victory last week at home against Fordham. Bobcats quarterback Kurtis Rourke completed 41/50 passes for 537 yards and 4 touchdowns, leading the team to a 59-52 victory.
While Ohio games have been going over the total to this point, expect a lower scoring game this week. Kent State showed last week that they can hang defensively with a team like the Georgia Bulldogs. Additionally, Ohio is bound to make some defensive adjustments as they finally get to play an in-conference game. Their only two losses are to Iowa State and Penn State, who are legit Power 5 programs. Look for Ohio to cover the +11.5 but MAC Daddy is most confident taking the under here.
MAC Daddy’s Pick: Full Game Under 69
Miami, OH (+1.5) @ Buffalo
Total O/U: 50.5
Buffalo finally showed what they can do, beating Eastern Michigan 50-31 on the road as one touchdown underdogs. Buffalo found their mojo, putting up almost 500 total yards against the Eagles of Eastern Michigan last week. The Miami Redhawks played a close game against Northwestern but ended up stealing a 17-14 win. Miami is still figuring out how to operate without Brett Gabbert, younger brother of NFL quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert has been a staple in this offense for multiple years but was hurt against Kentucky in the first week of the season.
The most significant trend regarding this game is that the favorite is 11-2-1 in their last 14 head-to-head meetings. Miami is one of few MAC teams that were able to win one of their buy games. This may come into play if the conference is as competitive as it looks to be this year. While they’ll be in the mix for a Mid-American Conference title, it’ll be hard to achieve without star Brett Gabbert. Buffalo will benefit from recent form and a good home backing to win the game here.
I would typically take the moneyline here but will play the -1.5 for the sake of my season-long ATS record.
MAC Daddy’s Pick: Buffalo -1.5
Central Michigan (+6.5) @ Toledo
Total O/U: 56.5
The Chips lost in a blowout to Penn State last week in a game where they failed to put up any points in the second half. Quarterback Daniel Richardson finished with 235 yards, two scores and two picks. Lew Nichols added 67 rush yards on 13 carries. On the Toledo side, they lost a close game against San Diego State by a 17-14 score. The main takeaway from this game was while they were able to average just over 5 yards per play on offense, they also had four turnovers.
Favorites have been the way to go in this matchup. The favorite has covered the spread in 11 of their last 13 meetings. Toledo looks like one of the formidable offenses in the MAC this year, with Dequan Finn at quarterback. He has combined for 11 total touchdowns through 4 games so far this season. MAC Daddy’s pick is the Rockets to win by a touchdown at home in a high scoring game.
MAC Daddy’s Pick: Toledo -6.5
Bowling Green (-9.5) @ Akron
Total O/U: 51.5
Bowling Green and Akron were two of the worst teams in the MAC last season, both failing to reach the three-win mark. The Bowling Green Falcons won an impressive game against Marshall early on in 2022. Besides that, they have losses to UCLA, Mississippi State, and Eastern Kentucky so far this year. While they have had to play some tough opponents, their defense currently ranks 129th in total yards allowed per game. They rank 128th in opponent points scored per game. Thankfully they get to play a team in Akron that has had almost no luck offensively this season. The Zips were only able to muster 12 points last week versus Liberty. Before that, they put up a combined 6 points the two weeks prior. This will be a matchup of weakness against weakness, making for an intriguing betting opportunity.
The line has moved significantly towards Bowling Green likely given Akron’s ineptitude on both sides of the ball this season. Bowling Green must be able to stop Akron defensively, and this is the week that this will happen. If the Falcons get their senior quarterback Matt McDonald back as they expect to, they will be able to roll against Akron to a double-digit victory.
It is worth noting that BGSU is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road contests.
MAC Daddy’s Pick: Bowling Green -9.5